3,000 career hits is an ‘Almost’ HOF guarantee

Should it be 2,500?

The 101 players with the most hits in MLB history includes 21 players who are not in the Hall of Fame. The list includes Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, and since both are surefire first ballot HOFers, it’s really only 19. 2,500 career knocks are evidence of greatness and the only non HOFers with 2,500 or more career hits in the top 50 are Rafael Palmiero #30 all-time (3,020 and he’s the only 3,000-hit player not in Cooperstown), Barry Bonds #38 (2,935), and Omar Vizquel #44 (2,877).

Here is the list of players with the most hits in MLB history

2,500-3,000 career hits are nothing to sneeze at

Out of the top 101 career hits leaders, there are then 17 players amongst the next 51 that are not in the HOF. Starting with the 2,513 hits by Jimmy Ryan, a 19^th century ballplayer, all the way up to HOFer Ivan Rodriguez #50 all time with 2,844 career hits.

Non HOFers on the list from 51-101 in career base hits

Johnny Damon (2,769)

Vada Pinson (2,757)

Al Oliver (2,743)

Carlos Beltran (2,725)

Rusty Staub (2,716)

Lave Cross (2,651) – another 19^th century player

Robinson Cano (2,639)

Steve Garvey (2,599)

Luis Gonzalez (2,591)

Julio Franco (2,586)

Manny Ramirez (2,574)

Willie Davis (2,561)

Steve Finley (2,548)

George Van Haltren (2,544) – yet another 19^th century player

Garrett Anderson (2,529)

Buddy Bell (2,514)

Jimmy Ryan (2,513)

Pulling out Beltran, who is still on the ballot and has a decent chance to be elected, Robinson Cano likely will miss out and Manny Ramirez whiffed on the HOF due to ‘other’ considerations. The remaining 14 were all excellent ballplayers, but remain on the outside looking in.

HOFer Sam Rice finished with 2,987 hits. I recently read some quotes from him describing that he had no idea 3,000 hits was important and wasn’t even specifically aware of how many hits he had during his playing career which ended in 1934. Interestingly, every player with 3,000 career hits has more than 10,000 career plate appearances.

When looking at the non-HOFers with more than 2,500 career hits, there are several who are not in the HOF solely because they did not amass 3,000 hits. Amassing is different than compiling but the words are often used interchangeably when talking about baseball stats. Players with more than 2,500 career hits did not compile them, they earned them, and they were amassed through …. hitting safely!

Taking another look at players who fell short of 3,000 and the HOF

Maybe I should not be as dismissive of Omar Vizquel’s HOF case with his 2,877 career hits recorded over 24 seasons and stellar defense with 11 Gold Gloves. Yes, there were off-the-field issues but that’s doesn’t really figure in my thought process. He just didn’t seem like a HOFer when I watched him play. It also could be the career 82 OPS+ which is 18% below average.

Then there’s Johnny Damon. I always felt he was an ‘Almost’ guy and rightly excluded from Cooperstown. But 2,769 hits over 18 MLB seasons, 408 stolen bases are notable even if his career OPS+ is 104 slightly above average, along with his meh defense and a weak throwing arm. Was Damon better than I give him credit for being? If he had made it to 3,000 hits, would that have made him a surefire HOFer? Damon was injured a fair amount, but had he played another four seasons (22) as did so many HOFers, he might’ve got there but he retired at age 38.

Vada Pinson had an interesting and excellent career. He too played 18 seasons retiring at age 36. He wasn’t very good in that final 1975 season with the Royals, but you know he was aware that he was 243 hits away from 3,000 career hits which very likely would have catapulted him into the HOF. Had Pinson played three more seasons he’d only had to average 81 hits per season to make it to the magic 3,000 hit mark. But that did not happen, and he was excluded.

Al Oliver is another player that I admired throughout his career. Oliver fell 257 hits short of 3,000 over his 18 seasons retiring after the 1985 season at age 38. Oliver’s suspect outfield defense hurt his case more than anything else. Yet a batting title, being a seven-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger is why I feel Oliver was unfairly overlooked. Had he achieved 3,000 hits it would not change my mind, but I can’t say that for the voters who passed on him.

All the players on the list between 2,500 and 3,000 career hits who did not reach the HOF, had they made it 3,000 career hits, would already be on a plaque in Cooperstown since that’s what has happened to all the 3,000-hit players not associated with steroids or gambling. I am less convinced than ever that 3,000 is a magic number and that players who fell short are or were somehow less worthy. There are plenty of players who didn’t get to 3,000 who are richly deserving of being in the HOF despite falling short.

That list is longer than you might think as there are more than 110 non-pitchers including Negro League players in Cooperstown credited with fewer than 2,500 hits. Negro League players often pitched and played other positions to a greater degree than MLB players. I only counted 12 of them not including Roy Campenella and Monte Irvin.

It’s an interesting list in and of itself. Below is the top 10.

I don’t feel 3,000 hits would have made them better Hall-of-Famers. They were great just the way they were! Well, maybe not Lloyd Waner.

About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and of course Substack.com