The All-time MLB career home run total list means less than ever
Did you know Babe Ruth actually hit 716 home runs?
The 2024 Hall of Fame Ballot was released just before Thanksgiving and there are some terrific first year candidates including 3rd baseman Adrian Beltre, who seems certain to be inducted and he may even be voted in unanimously, which would be a first for a position player.
Adrian Beltre’s career totals and accomplishments check all the sexy stat boxes. Among his remarkable career totals, he hit 477 Home Runs which is 3rd all-time behind Mike Schmidt (548) and Eddie Mathews (512). For many years a player that had 400 career home runs had a ticket to election into Cooperstown. I am here to call out that Dave Kingman’s career total of 442 HR’s changed evaluation of power stats forever.
A Career batting average of .300 is a very notable achievement. Today seasonal batting averages fall routinely below .300 even for league leaders. You might be surprised that there are a number of non-Hall-of-Famers who’ve played 10 seasons or more and achieved a career batting average of .300 or better and are not in the HOF. Great players like Wally Berger (.300 career BA 242 HRs, 138 career OPS+) and Al Oliver (.303 career BA, 2,741 hits, 219 HRs, 121 career OPS+) have been denied entry while still having very arguable HOF cases. Neither Berger nor Oliver hit even 300 home runs so for many that made it easier to ignore them. But having a .300 career batting average is far from being a guarantee of enshrinement.
RBIs are another important classic stat that separates the greats from the not-quite greats. Every player in the top 50 all-time RBI leaders is in the HOF except for what I am calling the Sinful 7. Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmiero, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield. Joe DiMaggio comes in at #50 all-time with 1537 RBIs. But 1,500 RBI’s is not a sure ticket to Cooperstown either since Jeff Kent (1,518) and Carlos Delgado (1,512) missed the cut. 1,600 career RBI’s is a certain path to induction. At least for now.
But in baseball the home run is king, isn’t it? Chicks still dig the long ball!
Dave Kingman was the first player to hit 400 home runs who never even got a sniff of HOF consideration. Was it his career 17.3 bWAR over 16 seasons? Or maybe it was the career .236 BA and the career 115 OPS+? Whatever were the reasons, Kingman who went to my alma mater USC, was an interesting player to watch at 6 feet 6” tall. He hit some of the most prodigious home runs in MLB history. But HOF voters were not swayed even though the weight of all those who had hit 400+ home runs prior, would seem to be heavy on the mind.
Then there’s the case of Gary Sheffield. This is his 10th and final year on the HOF ballot. Gary Sheffield hit 509 career home runs. He also delivered a .292 career batting average and a career OPS+ of 140. He was a below average and a seemingly disinterested infielder, and his career offensive bWAR was 80.7. That would be the highest career WAR by far to not be included in the HOF. Sheffield’s defense pulled his overall career bWAR down to 60.5.
When Sheffield first arrived on the MLB scene, he was notable for being Dwight Gooden’s nephew even though Sheffield is only 4 years younger. But the man could flat out hit and was a #4 hitter even at the end of his career with the Mets. No pitcher wanted to see Gary Sheffield come to the plate in a big moment or any moment. Sheffield has made progress on the ballot in recent years getting 55% of the required votes last season. But getting to 75% in this his final season on the ballot will be difficult with players like Beltre and Todd Helton (hopefully and finally), being the front-runners for induction this time around.
Like Barry Bonds, A-Rod, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez, and Rafael Palmiero. Sheffield’s 500+ HR’s are negated by his veiled link to the Balco scandal. In 2004 SI’s Tom Verducci reported that Sheffield told him that he received a cortisone-type cream to rub on his surgical scars. He was not told it was an illegal steroid. He admitted to using the cream during the 2002 season. A season in which he hit .307/.404/.512 with 25 HRs. That would be a down season for Gary Sheffield if you wonder about cause and effect. Clearly BBWA writers do not believe Sheffield’s account. But Jay Jaffe is more willing to https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/21/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-gary-sheffield and so am I.
While A-Rod has several years left on the ballot, The Baseball Writers Association of America (BWAA) have already decided that those sinning seven should be excluded. Excluding Albert Pujols, recently retired Miguel Cabrera, and the Sinful 7, the top 33 home run hitters in MLB history are all in the Hall-of-Fame. Beyond that at #34 all-time in HR’s is Carlos Delgado (473), recently retired Nelson Cruz (464), Jose Canseco and Adam Dunn (462) are all not in the HOF with more HR’s than Dave Kingman. Carlos Delgado seems to have suffered most from Dave Kingman’s meh 442 career homers. He was light years better as a hitter and a major contributor to 2 World Series championships. Nobody will try to argue that Nellie Cruz or Adam Dunn, belong in Cooperstown. You can add Jose Canseco to the sinful 7 and call it the ‘Excluded Eight’ but he falls short any way you slice it.
Kingman was never connected with PEDs. He reportedly did drink a lot of beer which may or may not have enhanced his performance. When Kingman finished his career in 1986, he was 17th on the all-time home run list. Today he is 43rd with Giancarlo Stanton (402) the closest active player to his total. Mike Trout is the next highest active player with 368.
50 years ago, 400 career home runs meant more since the modern era of the long ball had yet to dawn. Taking the top 50 career home run hitters of all time, more than half - 28 of them began playing in MLB after 1985. 400 career home runs have long since ceased to be meaningful in slam-dunking a HOF case. The PED ‘era’ revoked automatic 500 and 600 career home run admission tickets to Cooperstown as well. Now that a few 500 and 600 career home run players have been excluded it’s somehow easier to ignore this amazing achievement.
It’s probably safe to say that 500 career home runs IS the new 400. Adrian Beltre, soon after Albert Pujols, and finally Miguel Cabrera should all be inducted simply on the basis of their home run totals being in excess of 500. But doing that would diminish the entirety of their amazing careers! That’s what advanced stats like WAR, OPS+, WRC are there for. In the meantime, for me, if a player hits 500 career home runs, that player gets in. Unless he doesn’t.
About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and now Substack.com.