Death of the closer - Mariano Rivera is from another era
He ruined it for everyone else
While watching Guardians elite closer Emmanuel Clase give up a game-winning three-run home run to Tiger’s Kerry Carpenter I immediately thought that there’s goes the role of the closer. I mean, if we can’t trust Clase, there’s nobody else left, right?
Devin Williams of the Brewers in game three of the Wild Card series vs. the Mets, shockingly gave up a home run to Pete Alonso. He gave up four runs with a 2-0 lead in 2/3 of an inning! Williams was thought to be the pre-eminent closer in the National League.
The Guardians were thought to have the best bullpen in the 2024 MLB playoffs. If you want to argue the Padres are better overall with the additions of Tanner Scott and Jason Adam, that’s fine, but as good as is Robert Suarez, he’s not infallible. Neither was Josh Hader of the Astros. Nor is Edwin Diaz of the Mets. These closers are thought to be the best in the game!
HOF closer Mariano Rivera spoiled closing for anyone who came before or after
Imagine being an elite closer. Maybe your name is Craig Kimbrel or Kenley Jansen. Both have recorded more than 400 career saves. If those guys don’t get into Cooperstown which closer might join Mariano? Billy Wagner has had many swings and misses with his final year on the ballot coming up. All are so fallible with compared to Mariano Rivera. Every closer ever is fallible compared to Mariano Rivera who blew exactly five saves in his 96- game playoff career. Rivera carded 42 career postseason saves more than double the runner-up Jansen’s 20. How can anyone be compared? It kind of ruins it for everyone else.
Sam Miller wrote a good piece this week that we closers are not as far away from Rivera as it might seem. They are for sure front and center more often. He also included this little tidbit from Anthony Calamis:
Postseason Blown saves leaders
The most career blown saves in MLB postseason history:
1. Armando Benitez (6) (contrary to what Met fans like me think they were not all for the Mets.
2. Mariano Rivera (5)
2. Ryan Madson (5)
4. Kenley Jansen (4) tied with 6 others
Closers have always blown saves. But there are zero ‘lock down’ closers in MLB and no Mariano Rivera’s in sight. Could Rivera have been as successful today as he was in a career the ended (amazingly), 11 years ago? While I have some doubts, it almost never paid to bet against him.
A big change in relief pitching is having the closer enter the game prior to the ninth inning. This strategy makes a lot of sense in pitting the best reliver against the toughest part of an opposing lineup. Sometimes that can happen as early as the seventh inning and it’s become less shocking to see closers enter the game when there are still eight outs to go. That did not happen to Rivera or Billy Wagner.
Closers chances for the HOF are worse than ever
Kimbrel with 440 career saves and with no MLB contract for 2025, and Jansen (447) might be the last of a breed of closers that have a realistic shot at getting a plaque in Cooperstown. If there were no Mariano Rivera, I sincerely believe these too would be shoo-ins.
Would you pick any closer in today’s baseball over Billy Wagner? Wagner only had 11.1 IP in his postseason career, (Clase now has eight IP in his career), so his postseason resume (like Clase’s) is too thin to evaluate. Yet there was a fearsomeness to Wagner entering the game. Just as there was the portent of ‘game over’ when Mariano Rivera trotted in from right field. Those days appear to be past. On any given night closers can still be ‘light’s out’ as were Rivera, HOFers Trevor Hoffman and Dennis Eckersley. It is odd that Eckersley is known for a blown save more than any save he ever achieved! Never-the-less, Wagner (422 saves), if passed over, would has more credentials than Kimbrel or Jansen even with ‘only’ 903 career innings pitched.
Mariano Rivera’s 652 career saves is an unreachable record as is Cy Young’s 511 wins
36-year-old Aroldis Chapman (335 career saves), 30 -year-old Edwin Diaz (225) and 34-year-old Raisel Iglesias (224) are the active leaders in career saves. None of them will be going to Cooperstown. Josh Hader (199) would need to average 41 saves per season for the next three years to reach half of Rivera’s total of 652. Hader has never reached 40 saves in a single season. With the way closers are used today it’s impossible for them, or any closer, to come close to Rivera.
What’s also so different about closers today vs. 10+ years ago is an increasing lack of confidence that when they enter the game with a lead in the ninth inning the other team has little or no chance. Oh yes, they have a chance. Like the Tigers did on Monday this week vs. Clase and the Guardians. Like the Mets did vs. Williams and the Brewers. The aura of invincibility is gone and soon closers will just be another relief pitcher. Ding-dong the closer is dead!
About the Author: Mark Kolier along with his son Gordon co-hosts a baseball podcast called ‘Almost Cooperstown’. He also has written baseball-related articles that can be accessed on Medium.com and Substack.com.
There is no way Craig Kimbrel should be considered for the Hall (especially if no Wagner). He got off to a great start with Atlanta. There was a four-year stretch early on where I think many pundits thought that Kimbrel was going to be the next great closer, but then after he left the Braves, he didn't lose it, but there was never the same aura about him. I've seen Kimbrel blow more big games over the last five or so years, that for me, he has fallen off the all-time list for closers.
Great closers like Rivera were consistent for the entirety of their careers. Kimbrel has had more than a couple dud seasons. Take 2024 as an example with his 5.33 ERA (and that's not even his worst year).
Closers like Clase could still be great over the long haul, but like you said, so often now, they are put into situations where your prototypical closer would rarely be years ago. To be a Hall of Fame closer, you need to be great, or at the very least good, for nearly every season for at least 10 years. Wagner was certainly good to great in every season he pitched for 16 years, except for his 2000 season in which he had a 6+ ERA in just 27.2 frames. Show me another year in which the southpaw wasn't at least respectable. Billy is the new bar for reliever HOF. If he doesn't get in, then no one else should at that position.